Simultaneous Measles Outbreaks in Eugene and Montreal

Quebec already has its hands full dealing with a massive algae problem, now there's a measles outbreak in Montreal:

"The greater Montreal area has 14 confirmed cases of measles, most of them adults.

Dr. Horacio Arruda of Quebec's Health Department says 12 of the cases involve adults between the ages of 22 and 39. Arruda said at a news conference in Montreal today that the virus was likely brought into Quebec by people who were traveling.

The other two cases involved children under the age of five who hadn't been vaccinated.

Arruda says anyone who has symptoms, including red spots, fever, coughing and sneezing, must contact public health officials."


Meanwhile, Eugene, Oregon is also experiencing a measles outbreak, uhm, of... well... two people:

"Lane County Public Health officials announced Monday they have confirmed a second case of measles in Eugene.

A 21-year-old Eugene man was treated at Sacred Heart Medical Center May 26 with a fever and rash after he returned from a trip in Japan. He was diagnosed with measles.

After he arrived in Eugene May 22, he socialized with another Eugene man, also in his early 20s, public health officials said. The second man became infected May 28.

"They partied together the night the first young man arrived here from Japan," said Dr. Sarah Hendrickson with Lane County Public Health.

Betsy Meredith, a Lane County Public Health nursing supervisor, said she fears more people will come down with measles."

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So it looks like Japan has some hot hot measles action that our vaccinations just can't handle. I wonder if the Montreal cases originated from someone who visited Japan.

I'm just really curious as to what Lane County Public Health means when they say "socialized" and "partied"... eh? EH?!?

JAPAN!!!!!!

Updated WHO figures on H5N1

Coming on the heels of the news that the Chinese soldier with bird flu has died, and also an Indonesian teenager has died of H5N1, the WHO has released the latest tally of Bird Flu Deaths and Cases Total by Country.

	DEATHS	CASES TOTAL
AZERBAIJAN	5	8
CAMBODIA	7	7
CHINA	16	25
DJIBOUTI	0	1
EGYPT	14	34
INDONESIA*	79	99
IRAQ	2	3
LAOS	2	2
NIGERIA	1	1
THAILAND	17	25
TURKEY	4	12
VIETNAM	42	93
TOTAL:	189	310

* - I added the latest Indonesian case (and death) into the list as it had not been added to the official WHO list.

The total deaths to cases ratio leaves us with a mortality rate of 60.967%, meaning about 6 out of every 10 bird flu cases result in death.

However, a more accurate mortality rate can be derived from averaging the mortality rate of all countries reporting H5N1 cases, which I went ahead and calculated.

The average mortality rate for the 11 countries reporting cases is 60.05%, and the median is 64% (which happens to be China, who I guess wants to be in the middle of everything)

I think the big surprise here is that there's a country out there named Djibouti. Seriously, I've never heard of it before! Here's the CIA World Factbook entry about it. Apparently it's a North African country next to Somalia that is "slightly smaller than Massachusetts."

Idiots Fightened By Protein Manipulation

The "let's censor science" crowd is back at it again! Ok, so the study in question is pretty awesomely about making things infectious that previously weren't, but that is not the point. What is the point? I will get to that. First the background from the Washington Post:


Researchers in Germany reported yesterday that they had altered the DNA of a disease-causing bacterium to enable it to infect a species it cannot normally sicken -- a double-edged advance that experts said could deepen scientists' understanding of human diseases but could also speed the development of novel bioterrorism agents.

The change in infectiousness -- the first of its kind ever engineered from scratch -- poses no direct threat to human health, scientists said, because the microbe already causes a human disease: the food-borne illness called listeriosis.

The change allows that microbe to sicken mice, a species it has no natural capacity to infect.

Still, the work has biosecurity implications because it could, in theory, be applied in reverse, endowing a bacterium that causes a serious animal disease with an unprecedented ability to sicken people.

Several experts said they were disappointed that the report, in today's issue of the journal Cell, does not mention those implications.

Also worrisome to some is that Cell's editors did not seek outside advice on whether publication of the study would pose a security threat. Although in this case the consensus appears to be that the study would have easily passed muster, several prestigious U.S. organizations have called for such reviews when "dual use" microbiological advances are submitted for publication.

Echoing the recommendations of the National Academies, the National Science Advisory Board for Biosecurity -- part of the National Institutes of Health -- has called for extra layers of review before the publication of research that shows how to "alter the host range . . . of a biological agent."

Emilie Marcus, Cell's editor, said she has "a somewhat dissenting opinion" about the value of such reviews. "Issues were discussed and raised" internally, she said.

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HEY GOVERNMENT! SCIENCE DOESN'T FUCKING WORK FOR YOU OR GIVE A SHIT WHAT YOU THINK!!!!!

In fact, Science doesn't even necessarily work for the betterment of humanity. Science is about understanding how things work. Then scientists, once they figure out how something works, publish an article about how it works.

I'd like to give a big round of applause to Emilie Marcus for rejecting outright the idea of "reviews" on what can be published in a scientific journal. I think that's what a board of editors is for. I don't think Stable Isotope Quarterly has been publishing troop positions in Iraq, and last I checked Elsevier hasn't released a "How to make weapons-grade anthrax FOR DUMMIES" book.

The pinheaded bureaucratic morons of the world think that the 400 year old tradition of free and global exchange of scientific knowledge is suddenly a bad thing because we are now FIGHTING TERROR!!!!

I think the culturing of XDR-TB is a bit more pressing biosecurity issue than the possibility that a terrorist sect will spend several years studying the protein structures of exotic animal diseases with the intention of infecting humans with them...

I mean come on, get a fucking grip people. These people make bombs out of cow shit and a briefcase. If you can't do it in a college biology lab they're not going to be messing about with it. Let the grown-ups make science progress so we can maybe figure out new ways to fight diseases other than throwing synthetic fungus at them.

Chinese Soldier Being Treated for H5N1

From CIDRAP:

"May 29, 2007 (CIDRAP News) – A 19-year-old Chinese soldier is being treated for H5N1 avian influenza, while a woman who was diagnosed with the disease in February has left the hospital after months of treatment, according to reports from China.

China's health ministry announced the soldier's illness 3 days ago, the Associated Press (AP) reported. The soldier started having symptoms, including fever, cough, and pneumonia, on May 9 and was admitted to an army hospital on May 14, where he continued to receive treatment, China Daily reported yesterday. If his case is confirmed by the World Health Organization (WHO), it will be listed as China's 25th. The country has reported 15 fatalities.

The health ministry did not say where the soldier was stationed or if he had contact with birds, China Daily reported. However, Joanna Brent, a WHO official in Beijing, said China's health ministry told the WHO the soldier was stationed in the southern province of Fujian."

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Fujian? Does he have Fulian-type H5N1? No, he couldn't... China denies this substrain exists! It would be nice to get the full story from China... did he come into contact with birds or not? What was he doing as a soldier? I guess they don't feel the need to flesh out such minuscule details...

Massive Beef Recall Underway in 15 US States

Where's the beef? NewsLocale has the answer:

Fears of widespread E coli contamination forced a Michigan-based beef firm to recall over 129,000 pounds of beef, the US Department of Agriculture's Food Safety and Inspection Service confirmed today. The massive beef recall follows an inspection by the Michigan Department of Community Health, where it identified E coli O157:H7 as the source of illness in many people recently. USDA said the recall was underway in 15 American states.

David Creek Meats of Kalamazoo, Michigan, processed the suspect beef between March 1st and April 30th this year. Beef stamped with USDA Establishment number 1947A are subject to recall and no other products are implicated.

Escherichia coli or (E. coli) is a bacterium normally found in the gut of human beings. Under normal circumstances, the bacteria play an important role in waste processing, vitamin K production, and food absorption from the large intestine.

However the E. coli strain O157:H7 is associated with a host of illnesses in man. Prime among these diseases are food poisoning, urinary tract infections, peritonitis, meningitis and septicemia.

The current recall is underway in centers where beef was distributed by Gordon Food Service. The states where the beef is being recalled include Arkansas, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia and Wisconsin.

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Hey everybody, you know what's a lot cheaper than massive recalls and public humiliation for a company? Installing irradiators in processing plants!

The American public could care less about dying from colon cancer by ingesting such high quantities of red meat, but are terrified of electrons and photons being shot onto their meat, which leave no residual radiation.

Oh well... maybe I can someday I can get an irradiator manufacturer to give me an interview...

Mumps Outbreak in Canada

A couple of Mumps cases in Nova Scotia has ballooned to 300 cases in Toronto. Once again I'm left with the question, "didn't we all get a vaccine against mumps?"

Looks like North America needs its booster shots... Here's the full story from Reuters:

"TORONTO (Reuters) - Health officials have issued a warning on an outbreak of mumps that has already infected three people in Toronto and could hit hundreds more, the city's public health agency said on Wednesday.

The three confirmed cases occurred after two university students returned to Toronto from the east coast city of Halifax, Nova Scotia, and passed it to one of their friends. That person then unknowingly exposed about 300 others to the virus at a busy downtown Toronto bar last week, Toronto Public Health officials said.

The health agency has issued a warning for those people to be on the lookout for signs and symptoms of the disease.

A serious mumps outbreak in Eastern Canada has prompted health officials there to look into plans for a vaccination program.

The mumps is not usually a serious illness, but it can cause meningitis, hearing loss and orchitis (inflammation of the testicles). Women who get the illness in the first three months of pregnancy can also miscarry.

The highly contagious disease has previously broken out in Eastern Canada and the U.S. Midwest.

Canada's outbreak began in Nova Scotia in February where so far 222 people have been infected. Overall, nine cases have been confirmed in Ontario."

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So, before this there was no mumps vaccination program? What the hell is the MMR good for if you don't use it? Not that it appears particularly good anyway, seeing as it seems to wear off just as you're gaining your freshman fifteen...

Now that all the old diseases are coming back, I think we should start giving them the good ol' names as well. I think we should start calling mumps "the French Canadian Disease." French Canadians can call it "the American Disease" and the British can call it "the Colonial Disease."

Now all we need is some drug-resistant syphilis and a return to Imperial rule! Weeee! Break open the scotch boys, we got some spirochetes to engineer!

FluForecast predicted high H5N1 mortality in Indonesia

I'm still working on some statistical equations to try and predict how long until it mutates. Unfortunately, I know nearly nothing about genetics... (But I can do the stats!) Anyway, the mighty FluForcast program has shown that it's predictive powers are indeed impressive, as while the leading virologists were saying H5N1 would behave itself in 2006, FluForcast said otherwise. Here's the story from News-Medical.net:


"When H5N1 was thought to be quiescent in 2006, in a prospective open trial, FluForecast, a software program which measures virus gene proteins, predicted high human mortality H5N1 outbreaks to come.

In addition, FluForecast technology predicted that the leading country in which these outbreaks would occur would be Indonesia. Both predictions have now been found to be correct. The basis of these predictions, that unique virus structures relate quantitatively to high host mortality, has now also been demonstrated independently in laboratory experiments.

The FluForecast software program, developed by Replikins Ltd. to give advanced warning of influenza outbreaks, measures quantitatively the concentration of a new class of virus peptides, called Replikins, shown to be related to rapid replication and epidemics. FluForecast has been used to identify, or isolate 'in silico,' the area of the virus genome which contains the highest concentration of replikins; this area is now called the Replikin Peak Gene. It has now become possible to measure quantitatively the replikin concentration (Replikin Count, or number of replikins per 100 amino acids) in the Replikin Peak Gene (RPG) of all H5N1 virus isolates whose amino acid sequences are published annually in PubMed. It is now possible to determine whether the RPG gene in a given virus isolate is relatively 'quiescent' or more active, i.e. 'upregulated.'

While the Replikin Count of the whole virus had previously been found by Replikins, Ltd. to correlate with virus epidemics and outbreaks, the RPG gene, with a four-fold concentration of replikins, magnifies the differences. It is also now possible to compare the RPG in different hosts. The H5N1 virus RPG in humans has increased nine-fold from 2004 to 2006, and in 2006 was found to exceed the RPG in other hosts, eg. goose, duck and chicken. Similarly, it was possible to compare the RPG in each country, for each host. In this way it was found that the RPG upregulation in Indonesia for human H5N1 in 2006 was more than double that in Thailand and three to six times that in Japan, Russia, China and Vietnam. Thus the data in 2006 predicted both higher H5N1 human mortality rates, and that this would occur predominately in Indonesia. Both predictions have been realized in 2007.

In addition to these epidemiological studies, the hypothesis that host mortality rate can be predicted by virus Replikin Count has now been tested and confirmed in the laboratory. For each of four strains of Taura syndrome virus of shrimp, the Replikin Count was determined and compared by FluForecast. Separately, the laboratory determined blind, that is without knowledge of the order of virulence predicted by replikin analysis, the comparative actual mortality rates in shrimp achieved by each of the four virus strains. In the laboratory, these four strains were found to have increasing mortality rates in the following order: Venezuela, Hawaii, Thailand and Belize. Point-to-point linear statistically significant correlation was found between the Replikin Count and the mortality rate of each of the four strains.

Thus for two different viruses, H5N1 and Taura, acting in two different hosts, human and shrimp respectively, a quantitative correlation of virus Replikin Count and host mortality rate has been found. To our knowledge, this is the first time that this type of quantitative relationship has been demonstrated. These proof-of-concept experiments, added to those previously reported, further confirm the relationship of this new class of virus peptides, replikins, to rapid replication, to epidemics, and to mortality rates. The data also illustrates the use of FluForecast to provide advance warning of, and thus permit better control of, virus outbreaks."

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Obviously a slight reworking of a Replikins Inc. Press Release, but the facts are all there. Whatever the hell replikins are they are, analysis of them is useful in predicting the epidemiology of viruses.

It also demonstrates why samples of high-path H5N1 from every country NEED TO BE SENT TO HEALTH ORGANIZATIONS!!!

New Strains of Tuberculosis Could be Used as Bioweapons

Ok so this is a press release, but it makes the case that emerging strains of tuberculosis could be used effectively in bioterror attacks. From PR Newswire:


"BOCA RATON, Fla., May 2 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- It sounds crazy at first, but Dr. Kanti Daya, a credentialed, respected infectious disease specialist, believes that new strains of tuberculosis (TB) could be a devastating weapon in the hands of suicide terrorists.

"I am convinced that the absence of a viable program against tuberculosis being used a weapon compromises our state of national security," says Dr. Kanti.

Dr. Kanti isn't the only one sounding the alarm. An Interpol official warned of a bioterror threat, based on evidence from captured terrorists. And the CIA has listed TB as a potential bioterror weapon.

Despite widespread belief that tuberculosis has been conquered, deadly new outbreaks have recently been reported in England and South Africa. A recent AP article cited one man in Phoenix who has been locked up because he is infected with a "virtually untreatable" strain of tuberculosis, a strain that the WHO has been warning the public about.

"At least one-third of the world-two billion people-is infected with TB. Here in the U.S. we barely hear about these diseases, but ... we're starting to feel their impact because of immigrants," says Dr. Kanti.

Tuberculosis has been dubbed "Captain of the Men of Death," an apt sobriquet as the disease kills two million people each year-almost four people per minute.

"The disease is communicated via airborne droplets. It has no color, odor or heat content that would alert you to avoid breathing. For example, an effective infection with anthrax requires between 8,000-10,000 particles. TB infection only requires an inoculum of 2-3 particles," explains Dr. Kanti."

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Well, of course, 2 or 3 particles innoculating a human and causing a serious illness is a bit of a stretch, but XDR-TB does exist and it appears to be encroaching on the USA -- this is a serious matter of public health. Even worse, its quite feasible to easily procure some regular old killed-by-penicillin TB and kill culture after culture with various antibiotics until you end up with some XDR-TB. However, that scheme sounds a little too crazy and dangerous for even terrorists to attempt.

Maybe BARDA can get some people to get off their asses and come up with a real TB vaccine. That would be nice, and also maybe a mumps vaccine that actually works after you hit 20.

Which reminds me I really should get my MDaT booster...